GW Discourse

Photo courtesy of the BBC

Given the most recent example of drug murders in Mexico, increasingly Cormac McCarthy’s seminal novel detailing violence along the US-Mexico border in 1980 seems to be coming to life. Though President Felipe Calderón instituted a major offensive against cartels upon his 2006 election, thus far the results have been more than decidedly mixed.

Last week recent raids in 19 states on the part of the US government captured more than 300 individuals suspected of ties with La Familia, one of Mexico’s most violent cartels. This major two-day operation is part of the much larger Project Coronado, which in its 4 year existence has resulted in the arrests of 1,186 individuals and the seizure of $33 million in drug cash, nearly 2,000 kilograms of cocaine, 2,730 pounds of methamphetamine, 29 pounds of heroin, 16,390 pounds of marijuana, and 389 weapons.

Though these events certainly suggest a positive trend, the reality remains that they represent a tiny dent in Mexico’s flourishing drug trade, as overall levels of violence in the country have increased since last year. Ciudad Juarez experienced more than 1,300 deaths in the first eight months of this year alone, despite an incredibly heavy police presence. Further hindering the process are allegations of corruption among local police. In Tijuana, for example, police lost the ability to carry arms for three weeks while the government investigated corruption charges, brought in Federal Police, and relegated local law enforcement to using slingshots.

Though the Calderón government certainly appears to be making a concreted effort, despite the impressive seizure records, drug cartels within Mexico show no appreciable signs of slowing down. In my opinion, the Mexican government is doing just about all they can to fight this war and I do not see major advances being made unless the United States dramatically steps up its involvement, a proposition I only see happening once innocent Americans caught up in the conflict start dying on American soil in large numbers.

Prime Minister Erdogan, courtesy RFE/RL

A few weeks ago, the Turkish government canceled the joint military exercise  Anatolia Eagle because Turkey would not invite Israel, while the US refused to participate in an exercise that traditionally included the Israelis. While a departure from the norm, the  diplomatic fracas between Turkey, Israel and the US is just the latest development in the steady deterioration of the US and Israeli relations with Turkey since the successive 2002 and 2007 victories of the AK (Justice and Development) Party in general elections.

Turkey, with its heritage in Ataturk’s secular-nationalist vision and close ties to Western powers and ideas, has been an outlier in the Middle East. It was the second Muslim country (after Iran) to recognize Israel, and remains a NATO member. Turkey cooperated with Israel in military modernization and training, and they shared common interest in opposing Iran and Syria during the 1990s. Since 2002, though, the moderate Islamist AKP has presided over a shift in Turkish foreign policy, one heavy-handed Western actions in Turkey’s near abroad exacerbated. Turkey refused to include its forces in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and its 2007-2008 intervention against the PKK put the US on edge.

Israeli tensions with Hamas and especially Operation Cast Lead in Gaza severely strained Turkish relations. Turkish PM Erdogan’s spat with Peres at Davos reflected of a public mood in Turkey that earlier turned against the West and Israel. The Turkish people poll strongly against America and Mein Kampf was a 2005 best-seller. A Slate piece looks into the popularity of anti-Americanism in Turkey, showcasing a blockbuster Turkish film vehemently criticizing the American invasion of Iraq and featuring Gary Busey as an organ-stealing Jewish doctor; a best-selling 2004 novel ends with Turkey hitting DC with a nuclear bomb.

Turkish national and elite interests moderate popular sentiment to some extent – but this all should trouble the US. Firstly, Turkey has always held strategic importance as a geopolitical and cultural bridge between Europe and Asia. It is a NATO member and maintains strong ties to Europe, and whether one is dealing with Russian energy politics, containing Iranian influence, or maintaining leverage in the Middle East, Turkey is an important partner. But Turkey is also held as a model of Muslim democracy – and this same democracy elected a party which will voice the preferences of its people. Democracy and American strategic interests in the Middle East will only coexist when America, and its ally Israel, pursue ends amenable to the populations who elect those democratic governments to begin with.

Rep. Anthony Weiner, an advocate of the public option. Photo courtesy Talking Points Memo.

Health care reform may have just reached a major breakthrough—or not. Only time will tell if the so-called “public option opt out” will mend the irreconcilable differences some members of Congress have over reform. The opt out would basically allow states to discontinue the public option if they wanted to, down the road of course.

Advocates of the public option like Senator Rockefeller and Representative Weiner seem on board with the opt out, as well as moderate Democrats like Bill Nelson (D-NE). He told Talking Points Memo:

While there’s support for public option generally, generically, when you start talking about it specifically as it relates to states being able to opt out or opt in, have their own, the support overwhelmingly goes up to 76 percent.

The opt out caters to both liberals and conservatives. The former likes that the public option opt out would be essentially the same as a public option, and the latter likes the autonomy it gives statehouses to choose their path. Time will tell if the opt out makes its way into final version of health care reform or not. What’s in a name anyways?