BERLIN – When President Yanukovych talked to German business leaders and statesmen at the Hotel Adlon about new partnerships between Ukraine and the E.U., there was something missing from his speech – the European Union.
Yanukovych spoke for nearly forty minutes on Ukraine’s trade relationship with Germany, his efforts to fight corruption, and his new Finnish boathouse. He paused once to mention E.U. membership. The next day he was on a flight to Beijing, where he signed investment deals worth over $4 billion.
There may have been a lot of chatter over Merkel’s cool reception of Yanukovych. Not many noticed that Yanukovych’s embrace of Europe was equally reserved. While he confirmed that Ukrainians seek E.U. membership, he also made it clear that E.U. membership was not his top concern. Ukraine will be looking Far East, not near West.
The Beijing trip sent a clear message to Berlin. Ukraine will remain open for business with Germany and Europe. But that relationship will not be exclusive. Moscow and Beijing will have an equal share. Most importantly, economic ties do not mean privileges for Europe when it comes to influencing Kyiv’s domestic affairs.
After his speech, the president was asked directly about his country’s future in the E.U. While he acknowledged an increasingly large number of Ukrianians support E.U. membership, Yanukovych also delcared his approach Euro-Pragmatist, not Euro-Romantic. “First we must build Europe in Ukraine,” he replied.
In the past, that approach suited Germany just fine. Germany hoped that a climate of economic security, combined with trade interests, could passively encourage democracy. Business has become the bottom line in Germany’s approach to East Europe.
“The East is Germany’s Middle East – that’s where they get their energy from,” said Asle Toje, author of The European Union as a Small Power. “These are experienced statesmen who are very cautious about pursuing any policy that could tilt the equilibrium in a way that would not favor German interests.”
Those interests include Germany’s economic ties with Russia, a relationship Toje says Germany is not willing to jeopardize for democratic crusading. The E.U. wed itself to the Orange Revolution in 2004. After a disappointing term led to defeat at the polls, Germany in particularly regrets backing the wrong horse.
Democratic crusading is one thing, but a modern, prosperous Ukraine where journalists continue to disappear should not be an option. Modernization and investment has long been seen as a back door to democracy. It’s the founding principle of the Eastern Partnership. This principle needs to be re-examined.
“Building Europe in Ukraine” isn’t simply a matter of replicating the Eiffel tower in Lviv, or making a leaning tower of Kyiv. You can’t have Europe without Europeans: A well-informed, well-educated citizenry with a clear investment in their society’s success. Money alone does not lead the individual to happiness, and neither is it the solution to the development of a successful society. Yanukovych has had trouble realizing that good governance can also be good for business.
In fact, Yanukovych’s domestic policies cost him political capital in Europe. One of the reasons the Berlin trip was unsuccessful was because Yanukovych can not understand why his policies toward civil society evoke such large concerns from Europe, argues Lukasz Adamski, an analyst at the Polish Institute for International Affairs.
“The German government is not naïve. They do not expect the Party of Regions to be a party of democrats. They are concerned with exerting pressure on Yanukovych so that the situation in Ukraine does not deteriorate.”
It’s no secret that Yanukovych prefers his trade made in China – with no strings attached. As Ukraine’s political ties head East with its president, Berlin’s tactic of encouraging democracy through development may become dated. European business ties may no longer be sufficient tools to reign in illiberal behavior. If Yanukovych manages to substitute Beijing for Berlin, Ukraine may find itself a Europe without Europeans.
