As anyone who’s tolerated my ranting on the Obama policies towards Israel-Palestine, they could probably discern that I’d give as a grade an F- or so to Obama’s first year. His second year is not going to be much better, I fear. Joe Biden has touched down in Tel Aviv to promote the resumption of peace talks — albeit indirect ones. Unfortunately, these talks will be meaningless. Like the Annapolis initiative in 2007, there is nothing to substantiate the fact that — gasp! — Israelis and Palestinians are in a room talking about peace!
The gap between the two sides’ positions is not that great in theory. In the Times article above, Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat reaffirms his side’s commitment to land swaps that will accomodate some Israeli settlers. On the Israeli side, Netanyahu’s demands for demilitarization and a temporary continued Israeli military presence in the Jordan Valley are no more stringent than Ehud Barak’s generous offers at Taba in 2001. 
The problem is domestic politics. Aggressive military postures have brought Israel much better short- and medium-term security than have peaceful gestures. (Operation Cast Lead and the Israel-Hizballah war of 2006 are often deemed strategic losses in the West, but rocket attacks have all but disappeared after the conclusion of each conflict.) And in the territories, Palestinian negotiators have taken Obama’s early moves to give them cover for initially maximalist positions. (Never before has a halt to settlement building been a precondition to direct talks.) Palestinians are either not willing or not able (or both) to give Israel anything as a reward for whatever demands it meets.
Thus Israel, by providing security for itself rather than relying on the intransigent and incapable Palestinian Authority, has strangely weakened its negotiating position — and its interest in a grand peace bargain. Most Israelis are fairly content to let the status quo persist, meaning Netanyahu will have to take home a big prize of some sort if the Israeli public is going to let him make historic concessions. This is not going to happen. These talks will fizzle out, and I’m sorry to say that the two-state solution is as far from reality as ever.
UPDATE: See Laura Rozen’s excerpt from Israeli columnist Nahum Barnea’s smart take on the matter.
