Perhaps Americans can finally rejoice in some good news just in from the Afghan Kush this weekend. NATO’s massive offensive in Marja, Helmand Province, a notorious Taliban stronghold in a volatile region that was almost singlehandedly suffocating coalition prospects in this war over the summer, seems to be the first emerging success story in Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s tenure at the strategic helm of US military and strategic command in Afghanistan.
An estimated 15,000 troops (American, Afghan, and NATO forces alike) are currently storming the city by foot, by tank and by air. The majority of Taliban forces active in Marja are thought to have fled the city before the commencement of military action on Friday, and figures from the US Marine corps estimate that the international coalition now controls over half of the city, although their grasp is relatively tenuous and major security challenges loom in the coming weeks.
So far, it seems we have only perhaps proven the obvious: Taliban forces, though resilient and well-schooled in guerrilla tactics, like Iraqi insurgents, are simply no match for U.S. Marines, NATO forces, and even the haphazard, inexperienced Afghan military when it comes to conventional 21st-century style warfare. It seems the civilian cost of doing so, however, has been drastic, as twelve Afghans lost their lives today when two misfired NATO rockets struck near residential areas in the city.
We overestimate Taliban resurgence throughout Afghanistan (they number 1,000 in Marja, no match in numbers or technology to coalition resistance). Inarguably, their ranks have swelled over the last few years, but a lack of centralization and coordination amongst high-ranking officers in the organization and with their foot soldiers will prove highly detrimental to their efforts as U.S. and NATO troops continue phased deployment.
Afghanistan is a patchwork quilt of disparate polities, and must be approached and ruled as such (which certainly hasn’t been President Karzai’s approach). Stanley McChrystal’s new approach in this war, taking a page from David Petraeus’ largely successful ‘surge’ in Iraq, is beginning to work: limiting civilian casualties and coordinating efforts between troops and the locals builds confidence in flagging Afghan political and military institutions and establishes base conditions of social order necessary to stave off Al Qaeda influence in communities throughout the nation. Secrets from locals about Taliban bomb locations have likely already saved dozens of soldier’s lives in this weekend’s effort.
Coalition forces must continue to take the fight to the Taliban in strategically advantageous ways, utilizing the general population to gather intelligence and build support for the ruling regime (though backwards it may be). But tragic accidents like the rocket misfiring, though accidents they may be, have extremely damaging potential to diminish the renewed confidence the Afghan people are instilling in us, a confidence that could win this war that once seemed all but impossible.
BBC image of coalition undertaking in Helmand that commenced Friday.
