GW Discourse

The recent resurgence of Iran’s Green revolution, led by the opposition candidate Mir Hussein Moussavi, like most social uprisings, owes itself to demographic factors more than anything else. The best estimates are that over 60 per cent of Iran’s population is under thirty, politically empowered through relatively quick economic growth in recent times, urbanization and the internet.

Since June, many have mistaken this for a revolution. It isn’t.

This shift isn’t just political – it’s sociopolitical: fought between varying factions of Iran’s political hemisphere who either accept or reject change to the clerical establishment. As Iran grows younger, it seeks political hardware that is compatible with its needs. At present, Ayatollah Khamenei’s Islamic Republic, intent upon squashing civil liberties and maintaining power through brute force and nuclear jockeying in the international arena, is far from that.

This movement has been so successful, in part, because the leading players are cogs in the system. Moussavi is certainly not the ideal representative for the Iranian youth, but he’s the ONLY representative who managed to come through the Islamic Republic’s thorough vetting of presidential candidates unscathed. He was the initial catalyst for this revolutionary fervor but ultimately will not deliver it.

Revolution is not a foot race. The Green Revolution has only proven that the current Islamic Republic, like any regime, is mortal.

As Dan said, I do not doubt the power of police states to remain in power for vast stretches of time. Political regimes can only endure so long as they are widely given legitimacy but their people. But Khamenei faces a choice now that his predecessor, the revered Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini never had to face. It is reform, or die.