In Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz is busy. The size and scope of the challenges that face this developing nation are vast. In essence, the King must attempt contain Saudi population growth over the next two decades, while revitalizing and diversifying a primarily petrol-based economy in the midst of a global recession.
He has created a grand scheme to do so. From his vision, six “economic cities” (four of them illustrated below in a New York Times graphic) will rise from the sand of the Saudi desert, as have similar centers of commerce in the region such as Dubai, a colossus manufactured by foreign contractors, each with a different private sector focus that will develop and grow the Saudi economy.
Obviously, the question is, will it work? This sort of ultra-capitalist new deal seems at the same time both imminently dangerous and absolutely brilliant. Certainly the growth of these cities will stimulate the Saudi economy in the long term, but the government will be in the red on this project for some time, especially since foreign hands are almost entirely in control of the work.
It may take longer than the Saudis are willing to commit to build a truly diverse and strong economy. “Knowledge Economic City” and the advent of several new, foreign-owned universities is a start, but society is still highly stratified and widespread access to education is rarified at best.
Will the jobs stay? Even if education is developed to a high level, Saudi Arabia could very well be the next victims of “brain drain” which has plagued Indian and Pakistani development for years. There will certainly be jobs aplenty, but these reforms could certainly lead to massive migration patterns over the next twenty years.
Can this development be truly sustained? Historically, we have seen similar projects fade into the dust. Chandigarh, Nehru’s famous pet project, is one such disastrous example. If population growth trails off or other unforeseen crises occur, the six economic cities could very well be next.
But Saudi Arabia’s greatest enemy in its own economic growth may be itself. An economy can only be diversified and liberalized to a certain extent without drastic reforms in government. The monarchy feeds on oil revenues. With its source of income more diffuse and petrol becoming less dominant in a “green” era, the royals will be forced to implement major political and structural changes.
In the end, growth may be the greatest enemy of King Abdullah. An educated, wealthy society will likely demand democracy, and ebb away at the power of the Saudi royal class, as has traditionally been the cause in developing autocratic societies. Saudi’s economic cities project may indeed lead to seismic changes in the Muslim world.
Above: Saudi Arabia's current investment in four "economic cities," totaling well into the billions. King Abdullah hopes these investments will spur future growth in non-petrol industries and help curtail the current economic recession. Source: NY Times - 1/20/2008.
