New Jersey is used to being out of the national political spotlight, having spent most of the past half century as a giant strip mall with a beach for the eight million or so suburbanites crammed between New York and Philadelphia. New Jerseyans themselves are notoriously jaded when it comes to state politics, thanks to a tradition of third-worldy government corruption; according to a Gannet company poll taken over the summer, only 27% of people have a positive view of state government and at least half of all Democrats and Republicans believe the other party to be just as corrupt as theirs. This makes the broad attention payed to the current gubernatorial race all the more interesting—and arguably a little misplaced—as the candidates head into the final three weeks before the November 3rd election.
The race began with double digit leads for Chris Christie, the Republican challenger whose bid seemed like the best chance his party’s had to take the governor’s mansion since 1997. Incumbent Jon Corzine is widely viewed as ineffectual in the state thanks to near-constant tax battles with the legislature; perhaps the most broadly popular thing he’s done is appear in seatbelt infomercials after not wearing one in a near-fatal accident on the Garden State Parkway. Christie staked his claim to leadership on a strong ethics record from six years in the US Attorney’s office, where he rooted out over a hundred cases of public corruption—until his own connections to suspect no-bid contracts were revealed early last month. As the Corzine-Christie attacks have turned nastier in recent weeks, independent candidate Chris Daggett has rode the image of nonpartisan problem solver to great media acclaim (he was endorsed by the Star Ledger, the largest paper in the state) and double-digit poll numbers since his appearance in the television debates. Daggett’s rise has forced Christie to defend himself on two fronts, fighting for protest votes that would have been his were there no third man running.
As is stands today, Rasmussen gives Corzine 39%, Christie 41% and Daggett 11% of the vote. Prediction? Barring some game-changing surprise from one of the candidates, Corzine will squeak by for a second term as Christie gets nadered by Dagget. Whatever the cable pundits may argue, New Jersey’s is a poor election to wave as a referendum on the Obama administration or the state of the country on the whole. The voters are by national standards a bunch of moderate to liberal urbanites more inclined to look at the candidates and sigh before pulling the level for the devil they know. The enthusiastic highpoint of the whole race thus far was almost certainly today; when Bill Clinton came to town to rally Democrats as Corzine looked on awkwardly. President Obama is slated to show up in Hackensack tomorrow.
From left: Corzine, Daggett, Christie
As someone who is about to fill in his absentee ballot for the “devil they know,” I wanted to provide a couple corollaries to this piece, to be interpreted as you please.
1. The vast majority of New Jersey statewide elections follow a similar pattern to this one. The Republican Party typically spends vast sums in the summer months, encouraged by polls that show their candidate competitive or even leading, only to be crushed by a Democratis surge after Labor Day. This was true in the 2006 Senate election (Menendez vs. Kean), the 2005 Gubernatorial Election (Corzine vs. Forrester), the 2004 Presidential election, the 2001 Gubernatorial election (McGreevey vs. Schundler) and the 2000 Senate election (Corzine vs. Franks). In all of these elections, the Republicans thought they would finally win an election, only to see their numbers crater inexplicably in the fall.
Christie’s lead, as expected, has now dwindled into a dead heat. Seeing as there are a few weeks left, I would agree with the poster that Corzine will likely eke out a narrow win (less than 5%) which will almost certainly not be a majority.
2. New Jersey is one of the most partisan states in the country, meaning independents NEVER matter in our races. This is no Minnesota, and we don’t take kindly to people whose ideologies we can’t easily ascertain via a D or R tacked on to the end of their name. That being said, Daggett will take at least 5% of the vote and probably more, simply because a growing number of Republicans are (smartly) questioning Christie’s qualifications. This will only add to the aforementioned Democratic fall rebound and will help Corzine attain a second term despite high unfavorability ratings and a mixed record.
As someone who is about to fill in his absentee ballot for the “devil they know,” I wanted to provide a couple corollaries to this piece, to be interpreted as you please.
1. The vast majority of New Jersey statewide elections follow a similar pattern to this one. The Republican Party typically spends vast sums in the summer months, encouraged by polls that show their candidate competitive or even leading, only to be crushed by a Democratis surge after Labor Day. This was true in the 2006 Senate election (Menendez vs. Kean), the 2005 Gubernatorial Election (Corzine vs. Forrester), the 2004 Presidential election, the 2001 Gubernatorial election (McGreevey vs. Schundler) and the 2000 Senate election (Corzine vs. Franks). In all of these elections, the Republicans thought they would finally win an election, only to see their numbers crater inexplicably in the fall.
Christie’s lead, as expected, has now dwindled into a dead heat. Seeing as there are a few weeks left, I would agree with the poster that Corzine will likely eke out a narrow win (less than 5%) which will almost certainly not be a majority.
2. New Jersey is one of the most partisan states in the country, meaning independents NEVER matter in our races. This is no Minnesota, and we don’t take kindly to people whose ideologies we can’t easily ascertain via a D or R tacked on to the end of their name. That being said, Daggett will take at least 5% of the vote and probably more, simply because a growing number of Republicans are (smartly) questioning Christie’s qualifications. This will only add to the aforementioned Democratic fall rebound and will help Corzine attain a second term despite high unfavorability ratings and a mixed record.
I can’t believe you’re not pyilang with me–that was so helpful.
JNUtis kaoxzlyncyez
Daggett has broken 20 percent and can win. Now its a matter of getting that last 100,000 votes to get Daggett in a Position to win.
To do that we are reaching out to voters that want to Vote for Daggett but are afraid a vote for Daggett is a wasted vote. So…
The I’ll vote for Daggett Pledge:
“I want to vote for Chris Daggett, but only if he has a real chance of winning. He needs pledges from 100,000 people like me. I don’t want to wait til Election Day to find out that those votes existed, but we were all afraid to cast them. So, I’m signing my name below, with my address to prove that I’m real, and pledging that if 100,000 people like me sign up, I will vote for Daggett.”
Take the I’ll Vote For Daggett Pledge Here